Are the Cincinnati Bengals done in free agency? The best way to answer this is by following the numbers that matter.

For starters, space on the roster matters. The Bengals are at 70 rostered players after signing free agent guard Lucas Patrick. They have six NFL Draft picks to use and will sign around twice as many college free agents following the draft. That’s approximately 88 of the 90 offseason roster spots right there, meaning there isn’t very much space for many more new free agent signings. Some of those draft picks could lead to the release of a few veterans on the roster, but you’re talking about maybe a handful. Either way, don’t expect many more moves to be made.

Salary cap space is also a telltale sign for where the Bengals are at. Once Patrick’s $2.1 million deal is officially counted on the books, the Bengals will have around $22.8 million in top-51 offseason space remaining. When they’ve officially moved onto the draft and only focus on veteran-minimum signings, they’ll have a little under $20 million in space. Around $10 million will be used to fit their incoming draft class, make offseason workout payments, and pay the practice squad for the upcoming season. The rest is saved for in-season moves, but most of it is rolled over for next year. I physically feel your eyes rolling.

All of this is to say the Bengals appear very close to being done tweaking and adding to their roster, but I’m not ready to say they’re completely finished. Here are the moves that could still be reasonably expected to happen within the next month.

Reach a conclusion with Trey Hendrickson

This remains the big action to be made. Hendrickson’s camp has had a few weeks to gauge the trade market for his services, and while there are clubs who’d be willing to pay him what he wants, none of those clubs are willing to trade away what the Bengals want. Hendrickson’s camp communicated that a first-round pick could be returned to Cincinnati when requesting permission to seek a trade in the first place. The Bengals will not budge until this price is reached.

All signs indicate a trade is the unlikely outcome here. The Bengals could wait this out until the first round of the draft when a team could desperately call and offer their top pick for Hendrickson, but it really shouldn’t come to that. It’s in their best interest to work out an extension for Hendrickson, and it’s in the All-Pro defensive end’s best interest to take the best deal possible. Talks between both sides recently started back up as they both would like to reach a conclusion sooner rather than later.

Unfortunately for Hendrickson, it’s the other side that holds the leverage. He could sit out for all of training camp, but he wants a raise and long-term security at 30 years of age. Dragging this out for the rest of the year and into the season may only hurt his chances of finding what he’s looking for after he turns 31.

I don’t think it gets to that point. I think the Bengals budgeted their cap to give Hendrickson the raise he deserves sometime before the draft. It’s the best option for him, and the team can say they paid their three best players not named Joe Burrow in one offseason.

Keep tabs on veteran guards

Hendrickson is actually on the Bengals’ roster right now. Their starting right guard may not be. If the Bengals add another veteran in free agency, there’s a decent chance it’s another guard alongside Patrick.

So why hasn’t a signing been made? The best names available may not be in a rush to sign.

Brandon Scherff is the name many are focused on. Scherff has only been a free agent once in his career and is now 33 years old. It’s entirely possible he’s contemplating his football future at the moment, or he knows that he can sign onto a roster at any point in the offseason and play. Skipping out on offseason workouts and such is a luxury only veterans with Scherff’s resume can afford. That he may not have many more years left in the game is all the more reason why he’d want to avoid a grueling offseason.

The Bengals make sense as a team to reel him in. They have a high-powered offense with an offensive line coach who’s familiar with him. Scott Peters was a consultant for Bill Callahan when Callahan coached Scherff for the Washington Redskins in the early years of his career.

If not Scherff, Will Hernandez is still out there recovering from a knee injury. He’s likely looking at a one-year prove-it deal because of his injury. He’s also a few years younger than Scherff and was just as good in pass protection last season before getting hurt. Regardless, it makes sense why he’s still available. Dalton Risner is always available late in the offseason so there’s no real rush there if the Bengals have interest.

In an ideal world, the Bengals want to extend Hendrickson and sign one of the few proven guards remaining. I think they’d like to do both but understand that both may not happen if they play this passively, which they clearly are at the moment. They’re putting it on the players to come to them, for better or worse.

Miscellaneous moves

The Bengals don’t have very many players left to re-sign, but the door could be open for one or two more. Linebacker Joe Bachie comes to mind and I would not be surprised to see that in the coming weeks. Running back Trayveon Williams is a locker room favorite and has been with the team since 2019. Another veteran-minimum deal could always be in play, which could lead to Zack Moss getting released. I believe the team is waiting for Moss to be medically cleared before terminating his contract, so that could take a little while longer.

If a guy like Scherff does get signed, I’d expect a corresponding move with left guard Cordell Volson to be made at some point to offset the cost. Volson became expendable the moment Patrick walked into Paycor Stadium and signed on the dotted line. Perhaps a drafted guard seals the deal for him, but when looking at things from a cap perspective, it may propel the Bengals to move on via a trade or straight-up release.

Cincinnati was expected to look at linebackers as well but the market ballooned beyond a comfortable price range, which is why Oren Burks is all they’ve added. I’m not expecting very much in the form of another veteran addition at this point as it might already be a problem for the draft to solve. Germaine Pratt, who requested a trade last month, might just be safe until then. The same can be said about safety Geno Stone. All it takes is one early draft pick at his position to immediately put him on the hot seat.

Moving on from Moss, Volson, Pratt, and Stone would do more than balance out the cost of Hendrickson, a guard, and any minor moves left to be made. The odds of one of them making the roster is greater than none of them, but not by much.