David Montgomery should be good over a fully healthy season in 2025, but a supposed “bold” fantasy prediction isn’t really that bold.
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The Detroit Lions have the best running back duo in the NFL right now, and fantasy football managers have had to wonder what one could do if the other was out. Late last season we saw what that looked like for Jahmyr Gibbs, as he certainly helped win a lot of leagues when David Montgomery was out.
John Morton is replacing Ben Johnson as the Lions’ offensive coordinator, but the core tenants of one of the league’s best offenses will remain. That means a run-focused system, with room for both backs to produce. It’s also fair to say Gibbs has some untapped upside as a pass catcher that Morton should try to unearth.
Montgomery has been the ideal “Thunder” to Gibbs’ “Lightning”, or the “Knuckles” to Gibbs’ “Sonic” in the parlance of their nickname.
Gibbs used his strong finish to come in as the RB2 in 0.5-point PPR scoring last season (Week 1-18). Montgomery, despite missing the final three games, or the final two as it matters in most fantasy leagues, finished as RB18 in 0.5-point PPR.
Bold 2025 fantasy prediction for David Montgomery is not really all that bold
Gene Clemens of Fantasy Life recently put together an early list of five bold fantasy football predictions for 2025.
In the middle of the list is Montgomery finishing as a top-10 back, with Clemens noting a deep draft class of running backs and a return to health from Christian McCaffrey.
“You now know that Jahmyr Gibbs is the real deal. I have known that Gibbs was the real deal, so we will both need to live with the fact that the Lions want to prolong his career. Do not get used to what you saw from Gibbs with David Montgomery out late in the 2024 season. Monty will be back in the role he occupied last season. Sonic and Knuckles live on. While it is not a good thing for Gibbs fans, it is great for those who still believe in Montgomery. They have every reason to. He was very effective when he was on the field. He found the end zone regularly, and his 4.2 yards per carry has been good for opening drives and closing out games.”
In terms of “how does he get to the top-10”, Clemens first noted “health” and how if not for his knee injury Montgomery may have joined Gibbs in the top 10 last season after being RB13 in 2023.
By points per game last season (0.5-point PPR), Montgomery was a top-15 running back (14.6 per game). Take out the game he was injured in (five carries for four yards, four catches for 31 yards), and he would have been tied for 11th in points per game.
Montgomery’s touchdown rate (25 rushing touchdowns over 404 carries in two seasons as a Lion) screams looming regression. He’s also 27 years old, so an “age cliff” could be a concern. But all in all, assuming a similar workload to the last couple seasons and fewer than three missed games, Montgomery finishing as a top-10 fantasy running back in 2025 is not far-fetched.
