Free agency is a loser’s game in the NFL.
It’s the fast and sexy way for teams to upgrade their roster without using draft picks or trading for players. However, difference-makers don’t often make it to free agency. Teams tend to reward their best players with long-term contracts to build a contending squad around them.
The lack of elite talent and truly game-changing players who enter free agency drives up the price of complementary players and often leads to regret for the teams that sign them.
Occasionally, free agents become impact players. For example, the New York Giants let Saquon Barkley and Xavier McKinney walk in free agency. Barkley and McKinney signed handsome free-agent contracts this offseason, and they look like steals for the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers.
The Packers have not historically dabbled in free agency. Instead, they famously prefer to draft and develop. However, Brian Gutekunst has been more aggressive than his predecessors in free agency. Last year, he brought in McKinney and Josh Jacobs and signed the Smith Brothers in 2019.
Next year, the salary cap will reportedly increase to at least $265 million, a $22 million bump. That’s more than executives and management expected. In a free-agency class with no true stars, it’s a perfect storm for teams to spend valuable cap space on things they don’t need.
We’ve seen this happen a few times in the past. Teams with ample cap space have regretted splurging on players like Le’Veon Bell, Earl Thomas, and Ndamukong Suh.
The Packers shouldn’t spend money in free agency just because they have cap space. Green Bay has an average amount of cap space, and Jordan Love under contract long-term.
However, the Packers must soon extend players like Christian Watson, Zach Tom, and Devonte Wyatt. As a fourth-round pick, Tom will demand significantly more cap space than he did on his rookie contract. Still, the Packers have roughly $40 million of wiggle room to try and fill some potential holes on their roster at cornerback, edge rusher, and interior.
With players like Khalil Mack, D.J. Reed, Milton Williams, and Josh Sweat available in free agency, the Packers may be tempted to overspend on them.
Mack is already 33 years old. He’s been productive, but he’s reaching the end of his playing days. The Packers can’t (shouldn’t) give Mack a multi-year deal, even if another team is willing. Green Bay could try offering Mack a lucrative one-year deal, but they shouldn’t offer more.
Reed would be a solid addition to the cornerback room. Still, with Jaire Alexander’s uncertain future and Reed being the top corner on the market, the Packers probably can’t compete with other teams for his services.
Williams was a force for Philadelphia and would look awesome in green and gold. Still, as the top-rated interior player coming off a Super Bowl run, he’ll command a salary north of what the Packers will pay, especially with Kenny Clark and his $20 million cap hit still on the roster.
The Packers could also use Sweat. However, as the top-rated edge rusher also coming off a Super Bowl run, almost every team will be interested in him.
While Sweat would make a stellar addition to the defensive line, the Packers already have Rashan Gary on a lofty salary of $25 million. The Packers should probably prioritize edge rusher in the draft and hope a new coach and another year in the scheme unlock their current players.
I’m more for throwing some money at Atlanta Falcons center Drew Dalman, 26, who is in his prime, or taking a gamble on Asante Samuel Jr. staying healthy and returning to form as a solid corner on the boundary. That would address two needs and allow the Packers to streamline their draft approach at edge and wide receiver. The Packers should prioritize low-risk, high-reward moves instead of trying to sign the most expensive free agents.
