By Scott Powers, Mark Lazerus and Chris Johnston

Seth Jones wants to win. It’s why he signed a long-term deal with the Chicago Blackhawks, and it’s why he’s now open to potentially departing the Blackhawks.

To be fair, the Blackhawks have gone 94-175-32 since he arrived. It’s not exactly what he believed he was signing up for when he was acquired by the Blackhawks in 2021 and signed an eight-year extension.

The 30-year-old has appeared on Chris Johnston’s trade board since version 4.0, which came out Jan. 24, so it hasn’t been a secret that he could be available. Jones made that clear, though, to the Chicago Sun-Times on Wednesday.

League sources confirmed to The Athletic that the Blackhawks and Jones were exploring trade possibilities, but it was also described as unlikely anytime soon.

The biggest challenge is Jones’ contract. Jones is in the third year of an eight-year deal that carries a $9.5 million cap hit. Though the Blackhawks would be open to retaining some of Jones’ cap hit, they don’t want to take on a large percentage for the length of it. The Blackhawks hope they’ll one day be spending to the cap ceiling again while competing for the Stanley Cup and don’t want to be hamstrung by a significant amount of dead money on the books. When the San Jose Sharks traded Erik Karlsson to the Pittsburgh Penguins in August 2023, they retained 13.04 percent of his $11.5 million cap hit, locking them into $1.5 million in dead cap space for four seasons. Under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, teams are required to retain the same percentage of cap space across all the remaining years of a contract.

The Blackhawks also have to be wary of the cap floor next season. Jones’ salary has been financially beneficial to general manager Kyle Davidson in recent years. If Davidson moves Jones before next season, he might have to make a major splash in free agency simply to reach the floor. PuckPedia projects the Blackhawks around $59 million in cap space next season, which includes Jones’ contract. Davidson could make a play for a top-tier forward to complement Connor Bedard regardless of what happens with Jones, but there is no guarantee that caliber of player will hit the market.

The other major hurdle in trading Jones is that he has a full no-movement clause. He controls where he can go. Just like when Patrick Kane used the power of a no-movement clause to direct where the Blackhawks sent him at the trade deadline in 2023, it sounds as if Jones isn’t willing to go to just any winning NHL team. He has his preferences, and that also limits the possibilities, although the parties are working together to find him a new home.

None of it means a trade is impossible. Jones’ being open to the idea is more than before. It’s just that the likelihood of it might not be realistic until the offseason or within the next few seasons as the league’s cap ceiling rises and Jones’ contract doesn’t take up such a large percentage of a team’s total cap space.

So, where could Jones end up? What are the realistic options? Let’s explore that by going through all the teams in the playoff hunt.

Possibly

Calgary Flames: Outside of MacKenzie Weegar, the Flames don’t have a ton of money invested in their defense. Only two defensemen signed beyond next season. On paper, Calgary could make sense. Whether it’s Calgary or somewhere else, the question has to be whether Jones would be willing to play in Canada. He has total control of that.

Carolina Hurricanes: The Hurricanes have more than $13 million in defensemen coming off the books this summer between Brent Burns and Dmitry Orlov, and a Jaccob Slavin-Jones pairing could be enticing. But Carolina’s No. 1 priority will be re-signing Mikko Rantanen.

Detroit Red Wings: The Wings are in the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, and having a one-two punch of Moritz Seider and Jones on the right side certainly would help them hold off the field, this year and beyond.

Dallas Stars: Jones is from the Dallas area, and the Stars are among the league’s best teams, so this would have to be appealing to him. And with Tyler Seguin on LTIR, the Stars could make the money work. Having Jones as a second-pairing guy behind Miro Heiskanen (who plays on his off side) on the right side would be quite a luxury for a team that’s trying to win the Stanley Cup this season. But the Stars just acquired Cody Ceci in the Mikael Granlund trade, and making the math work beyond this season (especially with Thomas Harley due a big raise after next season) could be difficult. Chicago likely would have to eat a lot of money for a long time.

Florida Panthers: The Panthers have had a need on the right side since Brandon Montour left for the Seattle Kraken last summer, and Aaron Ekblad is a pending unrestricted free agent. GM Bill Zito also knows Jones well from their time together with the Columbus Blue Jackets. But Florida doesn’t have much in the way of prospects or picks (it was ranked dead last in Scott Wheeler’s pipeline rankings and doesn’t have any picks in the first three rounds in this year’s NHL Draft), and making the money work will be quite a challenge, even with the cap going up.

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Lightning could use another right-handed-shot defenseman as they continue to stay in their competitive window. The Lightning have the luxury of a lot of cost certainty, with a number of their top players already locked into deals. Jones would limit some of that future flexibility, but it’s important to remember that a lot of GMs value what Jones can bring to their team, even if he hasn’t lived up to his contract in Chicago.

Winnipeg Jets: Jones would be a nice upgrade on the right side for the Jets, who are among the league’s best teams and should be for years to come, with Connor Hellebuyck locked up through 2030-31. But if you’ve ever read one of The Athletic’s anonymous player polls, you know that — fair or not — no-trade clauses were basically invented because of Winnipeg’s mere existence.

Maybe

Columbus Blue Jackets: You wouldn’t think so considering Jones wanted out of Columbus. But things have changed since he was dealt to the Blackhawks. For one, Jarmo Kekäläinen is no longer the general manager. There is no denying the chemistry between Jones and Zach Werenski. The Blue Jackets aren’t absolutely a playoff team, but they’ve been the surprise of the season and seem to be headed in a positive direction.

Utah Hockey Club: Utah is in good shape in terms of the cap, but Jones has a full no-movement clause. Utah HC isn’t the old Arizona Coyotes, but it’ll take some time for Salt Lake City to become a coveted destination for high-profile players.

Vegas Golden Knights: On one hand, the Knights are pretty well set for the long term on the blue line, with Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud signed for multiple years to come. On the other hand, it’s Vegas, and going after big names is just what Vegas does. David Copperfield isn’t the most prominent magician in town; it’s Kelly McCrimmon.

Unlikely

Boston Bruins: The Bruins have talent and a great culture and have been perennial contenders for most of the last 15 years. But they seem to be tottering on the brink of falling into the same post-contention abyss the Blackhawks fell in just as Jones arrived. Jones has a full no-movement clause, and he’s seen this movie before.

Colorado Avalanche: Denver was home to Jones growing up, and his dad is an assistant coach for the Denver Nuggets. That said, the Avalanche have a lot of money invested in their defense already. It’s probably unlikely.

Edmonton Oilers: When Stan Bowman was the Blackhawks GM, he loved Jones’ game so much that he short-circuited a rebuild and gave up a recent top-10 pick (Adam Boqvist) and two first-round picks to get him. But Connor McDavid’s about to threaten $20 million a season with his next extension. Unless this becomes a one-for-one deal for Darnell Nurse — Edmonton’s own good-but-frustrating $9.25 million man — this feels unlikely.

Los Angeles Kings: Would Kings GM Rob Blake be willing to spend more than $20 million for 30-year-old Jones and 35-year-old Drew Doughty, who’s signed for two more seasons at $11 million a pop?

Minnesota Wild: The Wild have invested a lot of long-term money into their defense already. It’s unlikely they’re looking for someone like Jones right now.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are another team that is locked in with its defense. Jones wouldn’t make much sense for them.

New York Islanders: The Isles have been ravaged by injuries on the back end, but James Mirtle ranked the Islanders’ cap situation as the worst in the NHL. Adding another poor-value contract like Jones’ would be very on-brand for the Islanders but not very logical.

New York Rangers: The Rangers already have one $9.5 million defenseman in Adam Fox. Hard to see them squeezing in another.

Ottawa Senators: The Senators don’t need another top-four defenseman for their group. They’re pretty balanced. Jones wouldn’t be a good fit there.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs will have some money to play with if they let captain John Tavares walk or fail to re-sign Mitch Marner. But could they commit to either of those possibilities before the trade deadline? Unlikely.

Vancouver Canucks: Defense isn’t much of a concern for the Canucks, especially after extending Marcus Pettersson. Vancouver would be looking for upgrades at the forward position.

Washington Capitals: The Capitals appear pretty set with their defensemen for the coming years. It’s also hard to imagine them bringing in someone who has a larger cap hit than John Carlson.