As fans of the Cleveland Browns know, the NFL draft is mostly a crapshoot. While the Browns have been historically bad, most teams struggle to make good decisions and high-end players mostly come from the first and second round but there are also high busts rates early as well.

As of 2022, just 31% of first-round picks signed second contracts with the teams that drafted them and players drafted in the first three rounds were far more likely to sign with other teams. While we know good quarterbacks are mostly drafted in the first round, we also know how easy it is for those QBs never to reach the potential of their draft status.

As Cleveland prepares to decide what to do with the second overall pick, it is important to keep history in perspective. GM Andrew Berry could have a difficult decision to make with the second overall pick especially if all the rumors are wrong and the Tennessee Titans do not select a quarterback with the top pick.

An age-old question in the NFL draft, especially for the quarterback position: What is more important, a prospect’s ceiling or floor?

With this year’s NFL draft QB class, Shedeur Sanders seems to have the highest floor. Barring injury or bad team building around him, Sanders should be a good starter in the NFL. He may not have the arm talent or other physical gifts to elevate himself above 15th best in the NFL but he should easily reach a second contract with the team that drafts him.

Jalen Milroe has the highest variance between his ceiling and floor. With his physical traits, football IQ and work ethic, Milroe could be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL in five years but must be developed correctly. He could also be asked to change positions to running back or receiver within that same timeframe due to his lack of dropback passing skills coming out of college.

Cam Ward, the assumed top overall pick, has a higher floor than Milroe and a higher ceiling than Sanders which could explain the belief he will go number one. That doesn’t mean Ward doesn’t have “bust” potential, slightly higher than Sanders, but he also has a real shot at being a top 10-15 quarterback, again slightly higher than Sanders.

As noted in a recent report, Jaxson Dart got a lot of love coming out of the Senior Bowl but many talent evaluators see a similar floor as that with Milroe without the upside potential for the Ole Miss QB.

For the Browns, who “must” get it right to keep HC Kevin Stefanski and Berry in their positions, this year’s quarterback class may not have the right combination of floor and ceiling, especially if Ward is taken first. That could easily lead to a trade down or selecting a defender like DE Abdul Carter, CB/WR Travis Hunter or DT Mason Graham.

If Cleveland’s brass decide to draft a quarterback early, whether they value that QB’s floor or ceiling with be interesting. The Browns have seemed to try to avoid being just mediocre and swung for the fences in their trade for QB Deshaun Watson. Does that push them to value Sanders’s high floor? QB Baker Mayfield was good not great in Cleveland leading to his departure, does that concern still exist and lead the team to continue to seek high upside at quarterback despite more risk?

A lot to be decided between now and April’s NFL draft.