The 2024 NFL season’s AFC Championship will be an epic, historic matchup between the conference’s top two contenders of the last half-decade. The Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) will host the Buffalo Bills (15-4) on Sunday evening, kickoff set for 5:30 PM on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The winner will head to New Orleans, Louisiana, for Super Bowl LIX.

The Chiefs are attempting to become the only team in NFL history to make a third consecutive Super Bowl after two previous victories. The Bills are looking to win the AFC title for the first time since the 1993 season when a 30-13 home win over the Chiefs sent Buffalo to its fourth consecutive Super Bowl.

The intensity of this battle will be felt by the players and the fans: Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes wants Chiefs Kingdom to take it up a notch Sunday to “see how loud [Arrowhead] can really get.”

The stage is set for one of the biggest games in modern NFL history. Here are five things to watch in the AFC Championship:

1. Patrick Mahomes taking what the defense gives

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Mahomes will be scanning a familiar defense to him, but that doesn’t mean Buffalo will be predictable. According to NFL NextGen Stats, the traditionally zone-heavy Bills attacked the Chiefs with more man coverage in Week 11, leading to 18.2% of Mahomes’ targets qualifying as tight-window throws. That is the second-highest mark in any game of his this season.

On Sunday, wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown will be key. If Buffalo challenges the Chiefs’ passing game in a similar way, the duo will have opportunities to make big plays down the field. It will be a matter of the connection going through: last week, Mahomes targeted Brown deep twice for game-breaking plays, but neither was completed.

If the Bills back off, Worthy and Brown will still be important in stretching the coverage horizontally and vertically. With Bills’ starting free safety Taylor Rapp unable to play, rookie Cole Bishop will be attacked with speed. Look for Worthy to get heavy doses of short crossers and quick screens, taking the easy yards when Buffalo is soft in alignment.

2. Josh Allen vs. the blitz

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This season, Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen finished with the third-best passer rating versus the blitz, throwing only one interception and falling to sacks just six times.

Like any of the truly elite quarterbacks, it can be dangerous to send additional rushers at Allen and expose yourself to a big play. However, the Bills’ offensive line is built to counter pocket crushers and allow Allen time regardless: when facing four or fewer pass rushers in the regular season, Allen had the fifth-longest time to throw in the NFL.

For defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, it’s about executing the blitzes at the right time with a containment mentality. Allen is disciplined and will get rid of the ball to beat the rush, and the Chiefs should trust the healthy coverage unit to make those throws difficult.

It should be all about forcing a bad decision, which running rarely is for Allen. He finished with the highest rushing success rate among starting quarterbacks (66%) this season.

3. Trent McDuffie vs. Khalil Shakir

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The primary matchup to watch for the Chiefs’ defense involves cornerback Trent McDuffie continuing to be a blanket in coverage. Raw PFF data for “separation prevented” from the regular season showed McDuffie as the leader among cornerbacks with minimum 200 primary coverage snaps.

He should be the priority in covering Bills’ wide receiver Khalil Shakir, the team’s leader in targets (100) in the regular season. Through two playoff games, Shakir has 13 targets, 12 receptions, 128 yards and five first downs. No other Bill has more than five targets.

When the Chiefs blitz Allen, Shakir will be the go-to option; he has caught 85% of Allen’s blitzed throws to him, with 255 of the 267 yards in those situations coming after the catch.

This head-to-head would leave cornerbacks Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams to defend the perimeter against wide receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. How successful Allen is when targeting the outside duo could make the difference.

4. Jawaan Taylor versus Von Miller

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The Chiefs’ offense got through an ugly performance in the Divisional round, with credit due to a ferocious Texans’ pass rush. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor held up and only allowed one hurry over 32 pass blocks.

The Bills don’t have the level of talent Houston threw at the Chiefs off the edge, but edge rusher Von Miller will look to give Taylor similar trouble as Week 11: Miller earned a sack and an additional pressure over 18 rushes exclusively aligned over Taylor. Overall, it was Taylor’s lowest pass-blocking efficiency rate in any game this season (PFF).

If Miller can be quieted, the focus will go to left guard Mike Caliendo. He will be challenged in holding the front of the pocket against defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones.

5. Turnovers and the run game

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In the Bills’ win over the Baltimore Ravens last week, turnovers helped the Bills get into a positive game script and dissuade the Ravens from relying on the run game. Baltimore running backs averaged 6.1 yards per carry.

The Chiefs fell into an early hole in their own matchup with Buffalo this season, when Mahomes threw an interception after receiving the opening kickoff. It was the last game the Chiefs committed a turnover, and that trend continuing will be vital against Buffalo, the NFL leader in turnover differential (+27).

An effective run game naturally helps towards a clean day on offense, and it’s clear running back Kareem Hunt should lead that charge. Last week, Hunt earned 24 of his 44 rushing yards after contact, gaining 12 yards over expected throughout the game (NFL Next Gen Stats). Running back Isiah Pacheco rushed for six yards less than expected.