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The margin for error, as slim as it was already, is now gone. The Detroit Lions are aware of their predicament.<\/p>\n
With three weeks left in the regular season, the Lions are the No. 8 seed in a seven-team playoff field. As things currently stand, the Lions have a 25 percent chance of making the playoffs. Barring collapses elsewhere, they need a 3-0 finish to avoid an early locker cleanout. Players believe they have what it takes.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re resilient, we really are,\u201d quarterback Jared Goff said after their 41-34 loss to the Rams on Sunday. \u201cI expect us to bounce back from this, and we still have plenty of stuff in front of us. We do. And we\u2019ve got a great group that can win a championship here, and we know that. We just have to stick together and not allow some of the narratives to pull anything apart. Our captains need to step up, our leaders need to step up and be vocal and have energy. \u2026 We gotta show that resilience a few more times here.\u201d<\/p>\n
Three times, to be more precise. Here\u2019s a look at their path forward.<\/p>\n
1. Rams (11-3):<\/strong> at Seattle, at Atlanta, vs. Arizona.<\/p>\n 2. Bears (10-4):<\/strong> vs. Green Bay, at San Francisco, vs. Detroit.<\/p>\n 3. Eagles (9-5):<\/strong> at Washington, at Buffalo, vs. Washington.<\/p>\n 4. Buccaneers (7-7):<\/strong> at Carolina, at Miami, vs. Carolina.<\/p>\n 5. Seahawks (11-3):<\/strong> vs. Los Angeles (Rams), at Carolina, at San Francisco.<\/p>\n 6. 49ers (10-4):<\/strong> at Indianapolis, vs. Chicago, vs. Seattle.<\/p>\n 7. Packers (9-4-1):<\/strong> at Chicago, vs. Baltimore, at Minnesota.<\/p>\n In the mix<\/strong><\/p>\n 8. Lions (8-6):<\/strong> vs. Pittsburgh, at Minnesota, at Chicago.<\/p>\n 9. Panthers (7-7):<\/strong> vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Seattle, at Tampa Bay.<\/p>\n 10. Cowboys (6-7-1):<\/strong> vs. Los Angeles (Chargers), at Washington, at New York (Giants).<\/p>\n What changed this week? Honestly, not a lot. The Rams\u2019 win over the Lions keeps them atop the conference at 11-3. They\u2019ll travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks this week (the Rams won the first meeting in L.A.). The winner will be the No. 1 seed going into Week 17. The 49ers have won 10 games with one of the most injured rosters in the NFL. Their reward is the No. 6 seed and third place in their own division, but they are just one game behind (they split vs. the Rams and beat the Seahawks in their first meeting).<\/p>\n A loss to the Broncos dropped the Packers from the No. 2 seed to the No. 7 seed, while the Bears jumped from No. 7 to No. 2 after a dominant win over the Browns. That gives you an idea of the back-and-forth between those two teams \u2014 ahead of a head-to-head matchup in Chicago.<\/p>\n The No. 3 Eagles had a get-right game against the Raiders to improve to 9-5, tightening their grip on the NFC East after Dallas\u2019 loss to the Vikings. It appears no team wants to win the NFC South, as the No. 4 Bucs lost to the Falcons and the No. 9 Panthers lost to the Saints. They\u2019ll play twice over the next three weeks to decide the division.<\/p>\n So, how about those Lions?<\/p>\n Realistically, Detroit\u2019s playoff path remains unchanged. Beating the Rams would\u2019ve been a confidence builder for a group that has one win over a team above .500, but it wasn\u2019t a prerequisite to make the playoffs. That said, the loss eliminates whatever margin of error remained, with three weeks to go.<\/p>\n The Lions essentially need to win out and get to 11 wins to give themselves a shot at the playoffs. Here\u2019s what their playoff chances look like with a 10-7 record in each of the three scenarios, without factoring in the games of other teams:<\/p>\n \u2022 2-1 with a loss to the Steelers: 38 percent.<\/p>\n \u2022 2-1 with a loss to the Vikings: 40 percent.<\/p>\n \u2022 2-1 with a loss to the Bears: 9 percent.<\/p>\n Here are their chances with a 3-0 record: 95 percent.<\/p>\n As we\u2019ve laid out in past weeks, the Lions getting to 11 wins felt like the most realistic path to the playoffs. They could afford to drop a tough game vs. the Rams, but if they did, they would need to win out \u2014 or need serious help from others.<\/p>\n Even if the Lions win out, they\u2019re in need of some help. Let us explain.<\/p>\n The Lions should have their eye on the NFC North teams ahead of them. They\u2019re the two most realistic options. To pass the 49ers or Seahawks, the Lions need to win out, and would need both of those teams to lose out. Catching the Bears and Packers requires much less work.<\/p>\n The Bears lose at least one of their next two games against the Packers and 49ers. Say the Bears lose to the Packers but beat the 49ers. They\u2019d be 11-5 entering Week 18. If the Lions beat the Steelers and Vikings in their next two games, they\u2019d be 10-6 entering Week 18 \u2014 one game behind Chicago, right before a head-to-head match against the Bears to close the regular season. The Lions won the first meeting in Detroit. A win over the Bears in Week 18 would leave both teams 11-6. The Lions would own the tiebreaker and be guaranteed a spot. To recap: If the Lions go 3-0 and the Bears finish 1-2, Detroit is in.<\/p>\n The Packers lose their next two games against the Bears and Ravens. The Packers just lost star pass rusher Micah Parsons for the season to a torn ACL. You never want to see a player go down, but his absence has a chance to drastically shape the playoff race. If the Packers lose to the Bears in Chicago, then fall to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 17, they\u2019d be 9-6-1. A win over the Vikings in Week 18 could get them to 10-6-1, but in a world where the Lions win out to finish 11-6, the Packers would fall below the Lions. Again, if the Lions go 3-0 and the Packers finish 1-2, the Lions are in.<\/p>\n The Packers-Bears game on Sunday is crucial. If the Bears beat the Packers, the Lions need the Packers to lose to either the Ravens or the Vikings over the final two weeks. If the Packers beat the Bears, the Lions can secure a playoff spot with a win in Chicago to close the regular season. Again, the Lions need to win out in both scenarios.<\/p>\n There is a nightmare scenario worth laying out for the Lions, though.<\/p>\n The Bears beat the Packers, then beat the 49ers. They\u2019d be 12-4 entering Week 18, with the NFC North clinched regardless of what happens against the Lions in Week 18. The Packers lose to the Bears, but win their final two games against the Ravens and Vikings. They\u2019d finish 11-5-1. Even if the Lions win out, they\u2019d be 11-6. The NFC North standings would look like this.<\/p>\n 1. Bears 12-5<\/p>\n 2. Packers 11-5-1<\/p>\n 3. Lions 11-6<\/p>\n If that happens, the only way the Lions make the playoffs is if one of the Seahawks or 49ers loses out. Those teams still have a head-to-head game in Week 18, so only one of them can lose out. The Seahawks close with the Rams, Panthers and 49ers. The 49ers close with the Colts, Bears (a loss in this scenario) and Seahawks. A 1-2 record by either of those teams, combined with everything else laid out here, means the Lions could miss the playoffs with a 3-0 finish and 11-6 record.<\/p>\n As always, the Lions face an uphill battle. They need to win out and a little bit of help. It\u2019s not impossible, but considering the Lions have alternated wins and losses over their last 10 games, it makes it harder to envision. Even if they get there, the Lions haven\u2019t earned the sort of trust they have in the past that they\u2019re built for a run.<\/p>\n In the meantime, we\u2019ll see if they can salvage what\u2019s been a transition year.<\/p>\n \u201cThe win, lose, win, lose \u2014 we gotta get out of that rut,\u201d coach Dan Campbell said after the Rams game.<\/p>\n The Lions\u2019 season depends on it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Lions can put them in the best position by finishing 3-0, but even that doesn’t guarantee them a postseason invitation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39868,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[49],"class_list":["post-39867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-detroit-lions","tag-detroit-lions"],"yoast_head":"\n<\/p>\n
What can the Lions control?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
What the Lions need from others, and the nightmare scenario<\/h2>\n
Scenario 1<\/h3>\n
Scenario 2<\/h3>\n
Scenario 3<\/h3>\n
Bottom line<\/h2>\n