{"id":38919,"date":"2025-12-03T11:45:48","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T11:45:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=38919"},"modified":"2025-12-03T11:45:48","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T11:45:48","slug":"here-are-the-chiefs-chances-to-make-the-playoffs-if-they-finish-5-0-and-4-1-too","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=38919","title":{"rendered":"Here are the Chiefs\u2019 chances to make the playoffs if they finish 5-0 \u2026 and 4-1, too"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was blunt after his team\u2019s 31-28 road loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.<\/p>\n

While speaking to reporters postgame at AT&T Stadium, Mahomes outlined what he believed it would take for the 6-6 Chiefs to make the playoffs this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019ve got to win every game now,\u201d Mahomes said, \u201cand hope that\u2019s enough.\u201d<\/p>\n

The good news for Mahomes and the Chiefs? A deeper dive into their situation tells us this about their postseason odds:<\/p>\n

Winning out would almost assuredly get them into this year\u2019s dance.<\/p>\n

The math part of this comes from The Athletic\u2019s Playoff Simulator. If the Chiefs go 5-0 over their final five games, the simulator estimates they will have roughly a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs. Essentially, the Chiefs would need to win out and get a single loss from one of a few other AFC contenders in the coming weeks \u2014 like the Denver Broncos or Los Angeles Chargers \u2014 to punch their ticket.<\/p>\n

In all actuality, K.C. has a couple of things playing in its favor as it tries to resurrect its season with current 37 percent odds to make the postseason.<\/p>\n

For one, the Chiefs are playing a lot of other playoff contenders late. With home head-to-head matchups left against Houston, Denver and the Chargers, they could make up lots of tiebreaker ground if they pile up wins.<\/p>\n

Something else? The Chiefs\u2019 final five games are against AFC opponents. That looms as important considering the second playoff tiebreaker for the wild-card spots, behind head-to-head result, is conference record.<\/p>\n

If the Chiefs finish 5-0, they\u2019d push their AFC record to 8-4 \u2014 a mark that would likely be competitive with other teams in the race.<\/p>\n

K.C. also shouldn\u2019t consider its AFC West odds completely dead \u2026 at least not yet. Though the Broncos have a four-game lead in the division, the Chiefs finishing with a 5-0 record would give them an 11 percent chance of claiming the AFC West title, according to the simulator.<\/p>\n

Denver, which has used some close-game magic to start 10-2, has a difficult slate over the last few weeks with home games against the Green Bay Packers, the Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars, along with a road game at Arrowhead Stadium.<\/p>\n

This is worth noting as well: If the Chiefs go 4-1 in their last five games, they\u2019d still have a reasonable shot at making the postseason with a 10-7 record.<\/p>\n

According to the playoff simulator, here are the Chiefs\u2019 approximate chances of getting in if their one loss came against each of these opponents:<\/p>\n

\n

Playoff chances with 4-1 record if …<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\n% to make playoffs<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
KC loses to HOU<\/td>\n39%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KC loses to LAC<\/td>\n43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KC loses to TEN<\/td>\n68%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KC loses to DEN<\/td>\n53%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KC loses to LVR<\/td>\n56%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Though the Chiefs stand to be heavy road favorites against the Tennessee Titans, that result actually means the least, given it wouldn\u2019t affect as many playoff tiebreakers. K.C.\u2019s most critical game left is Sunday against Houston (7-5), with the winner claiming an all-important head-to-head edge that could make a difference down the stretch. If the Chiefs lose to the Texans, the playoff simulator gives them just an 11 percent chance to make the playoffs.<\/p>\n

The simulator does not like the Chiefs\u2019 chances if they go 3-2 in their final five games. Though there are still slim pathways for the Chiefs at 9-8 to make it in (with the best odds coming if one of those losses is to the Titans), the team\u2019s postseason chances max out at 9 percent with a 3-2 finish; some other iterations, meanwhile, would leave the Chiefs\u2019 postseason expectation at less than 1 percent if they do lose two more times.<\/p>\n

K.C. certainly has some reason to be optimistic that a turnaround is possible. The Chiefs have a plus-73 point differential, for example, which is better than the plus-59 mark they had through 12 weeks when they started 11-1 last season.<\/p>\n

This team is only 6-6, though, which means the results have to match the statistical production soon if the Chiefs want to give themselves a shot at Super Bowl LX.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve got to put it all together for four quarters in this league,\u201d Mahomes said. \u201cThat\u2019s something we\u2019ve been great at in the past \u2014 but it\u2019s not the past.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Chiefs have two things playing in their favor as they try to put themselves firmer in the AFC playoff race.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38920,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[19],"class_list":["post-38919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-kansas-city-chiefs"],"yoast_head":"\nHere are the Chiefs\u2019 chances to make the playoffs if they finish 5-0 \u2026 and 4-1, too - Breaking News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=38919\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Here are the Chiefs\u2019 chances to make the playoffs if they finish 5-0 \u2026 and 4-1, too - 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