{"id":3736,"date":"2024-11-21T11:01:25","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T11:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=3736"},"modified":"2024-11-21T11:01:25","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T11:01:25","slug":"16-stats-connor-bedards-linemates-rangers-top-6-issues-pierre-luc-dubois-bounce-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=3736","title":{"rendered":"16 stats: Connor Bedard\u2019s linemates, Rangers\u2019 top-6 issues, Pierre-Luc Dubois\u2019 bounce-back"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\"CHICAGO,<\/p>\n

It made perfect sense for the Blackhawks to sign Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi during the offseason. It makes a lot less sense now seeing how they\u2019ve used them.<\/p>\n

Both players felt like the kind of good stop-gap top-six talents who would be able to give Connor Bedard the support he was seriously lacking in his rookie season. They felt like perfect fits, too, with Teravainen as the defensively conscious playmaker and Bertuzzi as the gritty worker bee.<\/p>\n

A creative scorer, a responsible playmaker and an effective grinder should be line chemistry heaven, right? It is for most top teams, but the Blackhawks themselves wouldn\u2019t really know \u2014 that trio has played for a grand total of 40 seconds this season.<\/p>\n

To Chicago\u2019s credit, the Blackhawks started with a line that had a similar, albeit lesser, mix with Nick Foligno in Bertuzzi\u2019s place. That line really clicked with 59 percent of expected goals while outscoring opponents 4-3 \u2014 only for the team to abandon it. For reference, the Blackhawks didn\u2019t have a single line last year that played over 50 minutes and had an expected goal rate above 54 percent.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the point where Bedard started to struggle and the team tried seemingly every combination \u2014 the Blackhawks have had six straight games where Bedard played with different linemates \u2014 to get him going. Except the one that should work and the one that already did work, of course.<\/p>\n

In between all that, Bedard has also taken some spare shifts here and there with Bertuzzi and Taylor Hall, another strong combination of grit and playmaking skill. They had an 85 percent xG together and scored a goal in 12 sporadic minutes, but haven\u2019t actually taken a regular shift together.<\/p>\n

Play Bedard with the team\u2019s best offensive players on a line with someone who can do the dirty work, and he looks good. Really good. It\u2019s not a novel concept and only takes one look around the league to see how other top lines anchored by a superstar are built. There\u2019s almost always a complementarily skilled star next to him with an elite grinder rounding things out. Chicago may not have another star, but the Blackhawks do have offensively-minded talent that should fit Bedard\u2019s game well. For whatever reason, the Blackhawks have actively avoided that tried-and-true formula and it\u2019s been to Bedard\u2019s detriment.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s one other important factor to Bedard\u2019s success: keeping him away from the toughest defensive assignments that he floundered in last season. For now anyway.<\/p>\n

The Blackhawks seemingly recognized that last year by creating an actually strong shutdown line anchored by Jason Dickinson, one that was able to alleviate some of the defensive pressure off Bedard and take on tough minutes. They started the season that way too \u2014 until Tuesday night when the Bedard linemate wheel spun again and landed on Dickinson, a move that makes it really feel like the Blackhawks coaching staff has lost the plot.<\/p>\n

Do Bedard and Dickinson work together? Yes. We saw it last year and we saw it again on Tuesday night when Bedard set up Dickinson for two goals and the line dominated at five-on-five. The problem is that it combines two opposing leaders (Bedard as the team\u2019s offensive anchor and Dickinson as the defensive one), leaving the top line without much of an identity and the rest of the lineup looking fairly listless. It puts more defensive burden on Bedard and more offensive pressure on Dickinson, worlds neither are particularly well suited for. The pair works because it\u2019s two good players, but it leaves a weird mix otherwise \u2014 especially with the team\u2019s lack of centers available. After Dickinson, the team used Foligno, Ryan Donato and Lukas Reichel down the middle on Tuesday. That\u2019s ugly (and avoidable) stuff.<\/p>\n

None of this is particularly groundbreaking and that\u2019s what makes it so frustrating. We were supposed to be treated to a big Bedard breakout in his sophomore year. Instead, it feels like the Blackhawks, against their own best interest, have done everything in their power to limit that from happening. Their reward for it is a spot in the league\u2019s basement.<\/p>\n

\n

16 stats<\/b><\/h2>\n

1. Macklin Celebrini\u2019s growing pains<\/b><\/p>\n

It\u2019s getting harder each year for teenagers to really thrive in the NHL, especially with how putrid some of their landing spots are. Bedard learned that in his rookie year and Celebrini is learning it in his.<\/p>\n

To his credit, Celebrini has four goals and five points in eight games to start his career, but like Bedard\u2019s rookie campaign, there\u2019s a lot to be desired defensively. Right now Celebrini ranks as one of the worst Sharks forwards in his on-ice chance and shot rates and that stems entirely from his work in his own zone. Relative to teammates, the Sharks are allowing 7.5 more shot attempts and 0.69 more expected goals against with Celebrini on the ice so far.<\/p>\n

Celebrini will get there eventually and he has played tougher minutes than he arguably should, but it\u2019s another lesson that even the best prospects need some time to figure out the best league in the world.<\/p>\n

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\n

 <\/p>\n

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Will Dustin Wolf win the Calder Trophy? (Rich Gagnon \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

2. Dustin Wolf: Calder Trophy favorite<\/b><\/p>\n

We\u2019re 19 games in and Calgary is still in a playoff spot. The Flames\u2019 chances of winning the lottery have dropped from six percent to two percent as a result and there\u2019s one major culprit: Wolf. The rookie goaltender has a .925 save percentage in 10 games this season and has already saved 8.2 goals above expected, good for ninth in the league. That\u2019s sandwiched between Juuse Saros and Andrei Vasilevskiy \u2014 good company to keep.<\/p>\n

Wolf looks as dominant as he did in the AHL and if we were voting for the Calder after the first quarter, he\u2019d be my pick.<\/p>\n

3. Trevor Zegras needs a change of scenery<\/b><\/p>\n

In 18 games this year, Zegras has just six points, 42 percent of expected goals and is getting outscored 12-7. All significant declines from an already trying year last season leads to a minus-2.0 Net Rating to start the year, one of the 50 worst marks in the league. It really just doesn\u2019t feel like it\u2019s working for him in Anaheim.<\/p>\n

4. The Canucks\u2019 usage problem on defense<\/b><\/p>\n

Spot the problem.<\/p>\n

Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek
\n<\/b>GF%: 63.1%
\n<\/i>xGF%: 61.2%<\/i><\/p>\n

Tyler Myers and Carson Soucy
\n<\/b>GF%: 26.5%
\n<\/i>xGF%: 42.0%<\/i><\/p>\n

Erik Brannstrom and Vincent Desharnais
\n<\/b>GF%: 86.7%
\n<\/i>xGF%: 69.0%<\/i><\/p>\n

Two pairs are working tremendously right now for the Canucks and the other isn\u2019t. There\u2019s a reason for the discrepancy and part of it comes down to usage. Myers and Soucy take on the team\u2019s toughest minutes while also getting a much larger share of defensive zone starts. It\u2019s a difficult role that helps the other two pairs flourish, but it\u2019s clear the balance is off. If a team\u2019s shutdown pair is getting outscored by a 3-to-1 margin while being badly out-chanced, it\u2019s probably not working.<\/p>\n

The Myers-Soucy pair is not working.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s hope there given how the duo looked last season with respectably mid numbers given their role. But their numbers look far from respectable right now. If the Canucks are set on keeping these pairs as constructed, a better balance with how each pair is used might be in order. Myers and Soucy are struggling under the burden while the other two pairs both look like they can take on more responsibility.<\/p>\n

5. Devon Toews\u2019 rough start<\/b><\/p>\n

Things will get better for the Avalanche as they get healthier, but they also need their best players to be at their best. Most of the core is there with the exception of Toews, who has had a tough start to the year. His 49 percent xG rate is second last among Avalanche blueliners and eight percentage points behind Cale Makar\u2019s, his most frequent partner. That\u2019s a troubling difference given how much the duo plays together. For the year, Toews currently has a minus-1.2 Net Rating which ranks 144th among defensemen.<\/p>\n

6. The return of Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston?<\/b><\/p>\n

Leave it to Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston to have arguably their best games of the season on the day I was about to write that I was starting to worry about them.<\/p>\n

Going into Wednesday\u2019s game against San Jose, neither player was scoring, shooting, or play-driving anywhere close to their usual degree. Dallas may have been outscoring teams with both players on the ice, but it was hard to credit either Robertson or Johnston considering what they individually delivered. It\u2019s been an especially disappointing start for what was supposed to be a bounce-back for Robertson and a breakthrough for Johnston.<\/p>\n

All is not forgiven just yet, but a multi-point effort from the duo while dominating at five-on-five might be the spark the pair needs to get going. In a star-studded West, the Stars need their stars at their best. Here\u2019s hoping Robertson and Johnston\u2019s effort against the Sharks is a sign of things to come.<\/p>\n

7. Predators still haven\u2019t found what they\u2019re looking for<\/b><\/p>\n

Nashville\u2019s playoff hopes are already slim after a disastrous start, but we know this team has the ability to get hot and go streaking after last season\u2019s canceled U2 concert.<\/p>\n

For those at home comparing, the team\u2019s current hole is a fair bit deeper than the one they faced on February 15 after losing 9-2 to the Stars. While Nashville had less runway remaining at the time, its record was better (85-point pace then compared to 65-point pace now) which put the Predators\u2019 playoff chances at 18 percent. That\u2019s more than double the team\u2019s current odds of eight percent.<\/p>\n

If any team can go on a scorching hot run, it\u2019s the Predators. But while eight percent isn\u2019t insurmountable, it\u2019s a massive hole even a canceled concert catalyst would struggle to fix.<\/p>\n

8. Predators positive on special teams<\/b><\/p>\n

A lot has gone wrong for the Predators this season, but at the very least both of the team\u2019s special teams units have looked pretty strong. Nashville has a top-10 power play and is third in generating chances this season. On the penalty kill, the power of Juuse Saros has the team allowing just 3.5 goals against per 60, which leads the league.<\/p>\n

If the Predators could just figure things out at five-on-five they might be able to salvage this season. That\u2019s a big if when the team ranks 23rd in expected goals percentage.<\/p>\n

9. Jets\u2019 long-range regression<\/b><\/p>\n

One early sign of impending regression is long-range shooting percentage. Not that many of us need any reminder that a 16-3-0 team is going to fall back to earth, but it\u2019s still interesting to note how sharp Winnipeg\u2019s shooting has been from distance. Based on NHL EDGE data, the Jets scored on 3.2 percent of their long-range shots last season while the league\u2019s best team was at 5.3 percent. This year they\u2019re scoring on 9.8 percent of their long-range shots, over three percentage points more than the next-best team.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\n

Utah made a big bet with Mikhail Sergachev. Early returns suggest it was a good one. (Ezra Shaw \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

10. Mikhail Sergachev proving he\u2019s No. 1 in Utah<\/b><\/p>\n

Few players saw their stock fall harder in 2023-24 than Mikhail Sergachev. In 2022-23 he looked like Tampa Bay\u2019s future No. 1, scoring 64 points and driving play extremely well in a tough-minute role. He looked like a do-it-all stud \u2014 he just couldn\u2019t follow it up. Everything went wrong last season on the ice \u2026 and that was before a major injury sidelined him for the rest of the season.<\/p>\n

That inconsistency and injury made it difficult to know what exactly Sergachev was heading into the 2024-25 season. Utah made a big bet that he was still the No. 1 stud he looked like he was on the path to becoming in 2023, while many in the game were a lot more skeptical.<\/p>\n

Early returns suggest Utah made a solid bet; Sergachev is delivering. In a tough-minute role, Sergachev is once again doing it all earning 53 percent of expected goals so far and 55 percent of actual goals, both well ahead of what the team is otherwise doing. That\u2019s especially impressive given the difficulty of his minutes, as is his 55-point pace.<\/p>\n

Sergachev\u2019s plus-2.5 Net Rating currently ranks 27th among all defensemen and it feels like there\u2019s room for him to climb the ranks.<\/p>\n

11. Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak eating difficult minutes<\/b><\/p>\n

No team has had a more arduous schedule to start the season than the Lightning. The average opponent that Tampa Bay has faced has a plus-13 Net Rating which leads the league.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s put an especially difficult strain on the team\u2019s shutdown pair of McDonagh and Cernak, who have had to face the absolute toughest minutes in the league. Their average opponent has had an Offensive Rating of plus-3.3 which makes their defensive work even more impressive than it already is. In 232 minutes together, the duo has been on the ice for just 2.37 xGA per 60 and 0.99 GA per 60 \u2014 both very stingy marks.<\/p>\n

12. Top-six worries in New York<\/b><\/p>\n

The Rangers\u2019 underlying numbers look more formidable than usual, but that\u2019s being entirely driven by the bottom six \u2014 all of whom rank ahead of the team\u2019s top six in both xG and goals this season. That\u2019s good news for the team\u2019s depth, but the stars not shining at five-on-five is not ideal.<\/p>\n

Across the board, all five returning members of the top six have seen considerable drops at five-on-five compared to last season.<\/p>\n

Rangers\u2019 big five 2023-24<\/p>\n

xG with: 51.2 percent
\n<\/i>Goals with: 52.8 percent<\/i><\/p>\n

xG without: 44.9 percent
\n<\/i>Goals without: 44.3 percent<\/i><\/p>\n

Rangers\u2019 big five 2024-25<\/p>\n

xG with: 49.3 percent
\n<\/i>Goals with: 45.4 percent<\/i><\/p>\n

xG without: 60.5 percent
\n<\/i>Goals without: 83.1 percent<\/i><\/p>\n

Mika Zibanejad\u2019s line has been an especially big problem here with Zibanejad\u2019s xG percentage dropping to 44 percent on the season, one of the worst marks on the team. The Rangers have paid the price for it on the scoreboard, too, being outscored by a 13-8 margin.<\/p>\n

That effect has at least been recognized by the coaching staff to the point that it may actually be unfair to call Zibanejad\u2019s line the team\u2019s second line. His minutes at five-on-five have been cut to 11.7 per game this year, eighth among forwards on the team and down from 13.1 per game last year.<\/p>\n

13. Rangers\u2019 soft schedule<\/b><\/p>\n

What makes all that especially worrying? The Rangers have had the second easiest schedule so far with an average opponent Net Rating of minus-11.<\/p>\n

Of New York\u2019s 17 games, only six have come against likely playoff teams, where the Rangers have generally struggled. They\u2019re taking care of business against the league\u2019s weakerthans, but they\u2019ll need to step it up against the better teams going forward. The five-on-five divide is noteworthy.<\/p>\n

Rangers vs. above-average teams (3-3-0)
\n<\/b>xG: 40.1 percent
\n<\/i>Goals: 40.7 percent<\/i><\/p>\n

Rangers vs. below-average teams (9-1-1)
\n<\/b>xG: 61.0 percent
\n<\/i>Goals: 69.3 percent<\/i><\/p>\n

14. Capitals\u2019 suddenly star-studded core<\/b><\/p>\n

The Capitals currently have five players in the top 20 for Net Rating and three in the top 10: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, Rasmus Sandin and Connor McMichael. Hard to imagine many saw that coming.<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s unlikely they all maintain that pace (Strome and Ovechkin\u2019s on-ice shooting percentage is right around 20 percent), it\u2019s a helluva start for a team that looked incredibly short on star power going into the season. The growth of Strome and breakthroughs from Sandin and McMichael \u2014 if sustained \u2014 could give this team some unexpected staying power.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Pierre-Luc Dubois\u2019 resurgence with the Capitals has been an under-the-radar storyline. (Isaiah J. Downing \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

15. Pierre-Luc Dubois\u2019 bounce-back <\/b><\/p>\n

Somewhat lost amidst all the other great stories coming out of Washington is the resurgence of Dubois at five-on-five. He\u2019s scoring 2.35 points per 60 which is way up from the 1.75 average he\u2019s been at the prior two seasons. That\u2019s despite not having a five-on-five goal, though that\u2019s not for a lack of trying as his individual expected goal rate is also up from 0.75 last year to 1.09 this year. That jump is entirely a result of finding more dangerous areas, too, as his shot rate has actually dropped from 6.2 per 60 to 5.5. That means more dangerous shots with an expected shooting percentage of 19.8 percent vs. 12.1 percent last season.<\/p>\n

More impressive for Dubois is what he\u2019s providing as a two-way shutdown center. The Capitals are earning 60 percent of the expected goals with Dubois on the ice, one of the best marks on the team. Relative to teammates, his plus-0.34 per 60 impact would be a career high \u2014 a strong effort at both ends of the ice that represents a return to form toward the possession driver he was earlier in his career. That he\u2019s doing all that taking on the toughest assignments every night is what\u2019s putting Dubois back on the map. He\u2019s currently on pace for a plus-13 Net Rating, up from minus-0.9 last year.<\/p>\n

16. Red Wings\u2019 sputtering offense<\/b><\/p>\n

I didn\u2019t have high hopes for the Red Wings going into the season, but even I couldn\u2019t fathom just how anemic they would look offensively.<\/p>\n

Through 18 games the Red Wings are generating just 2.06 xGF per 60 and have scored only 1.48 GF per 60. The former is the absolute worst mark in the league and the latter isn\u2019t far off.<\/p>\n

Just how bad is it in Detroit? At five-on-five the Red Wings are generating close to the same amount of offense as the 2019-20 version \u2014 the one that played at a 45-point pace. That team actually scored more often. Ouch. It\u2019s shaping up to be a long<\/i> season in Motown.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Breaking News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=3736\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"16 stats: Connor Bedard\u2019s linemates, Rangers\u2019 top-6 issues, Pierre-Luc Dubois\u2019 bounce-back - Breaking News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How the Blackhawks are limiting Bedard from having a big sophomore season, Dubois' under-the-radar resurgence with the Capitals and more.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=3736\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Breaking News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-21T11:01:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/chicago-chay-40.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"MrKen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"MrKen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=3736\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=3736\",\"name\":\"16 stats: Connor Bedard\u2019s linemates, Rangers\u2019 top-6 issues, Pierre-Luc Dubois\u2019 bounce-back - 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