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Nothing has been more consistent (or annoying) than the\u00a0wide receiver one discussion\u00a0on the\u00a0Green Bay Packers\u00a0over the last three years. Since the team decided to trade Davante Adams away to the\u00a0Las Vegas Raiders\u00a0in 2022, the Packers haven’t had a receiver with over 1,000 yards in a single season, there hasn’t been a clear primary target, and a philosophical discussion about what the team prioritizes or should prioritize seems endless.<\/p>\n
After general manager Brian Gutekunst decided to bypass market opportunities to sign players like Davante Adams (yes, again) or trade for DK Metcalf, the topic is under intense attention once again, especially because\u00a0Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are the only ones with contract beyond 2025\u00a0in the room.<\/p>\n
No stat exemplifies better what the Packers’ approach has been. According to Aaron Schatz from FTN, Green Bay led the NFL in 2024 in throws to ‘other receivers,’ which means not WR1 or WR2, with 36% of the targets. It was not only high for a season, it was historically high\u2014the highest since Schatz started charting this data in 1999.<\/p>\n
When the Packers drafted three receivers in 2022 (Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Samori Toure), the intention behind it was clear. The days of building the passing offense around a single receiver were over\u2014and Gutekunst admitted at some point that his draft strategy would have been different had the team not traded Adams.<\/p>\n
This means that the Packers might get a WR1, or they might invest to build a balanced room. Both at the same time? Well, that might not be realistic based on how much (or little) value the Packer Way puts at the position.<\/p>\n
Back in 2021,\u00a0PFF’s Zach Drapkin\u00a0did an extremely useful research to determine positional value based on wins above replacement. The study isolated the top 32 players from each position and their respective WARs, and it concluded that wide receiver is the most valuable position in football after quarterback. Yes, more than edge rushers, more than tackles, more than cornerbacks.<\/p>\n
Kevin Wilson, from the X profile Yards After Contract, had an enlightening thread about how winning teams treat the wide receiver position.<\/p>\n
He isolated players with at least 25% of target share, 2.1 yards per route run, 2.2 receiving yards per team pass attempt, eight games played, plus six TDs per 17 games or a redzone target of at least 20%.<\/p>\n
In 2024, only 12 players reached all these thresholds: Ja’Marr Chase,\u00a0Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., Nico Collins, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb,\u00a0Malik Nabers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, and Mike Evans. Curiously, the only team that had two players on this list, the\u00a0Philadelphia Eagles, won the Super Bowl. But in fairness, it’s not exactly a replicable model because the Eagles have good players everywhere else. Wilson also considered top tight ends for this exercise.<\/p>\n
In total, 30 of 44 teams to reach the championship weekend had a true number 1 target, including eight of the last 11 Super Bowl winners. It’s basically nine, because the Buccaneers in 2020 didn’t have a true WR1 based on his criteria, but had Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown splitting targets.<\/p>\n
The only exceptions to the rule are the\u00a0New England Patriots\u00a0in 2016 and 2018\u2014in 2018, Rob Gronkowski was healthy, even though he didn’t have a dominant-type receiver profile. The\u00a0Kansas City Chiefs\u00a0didn’t have a top WR in 2022 and 2023, but they had Travis Kelce.<\/p>\n
Based on all the data, it’s fair to say that you better have a true elite target unless you have Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes.<\/p>\n
If you look at all these teams, though, most would also have strong offensive lines. Surprise: Good teams have good players. The difference is that the offensive line is a weak-link system.<\/p>\n
You could argue that the offensive line is more important than the wide receiver room for the success of a team, even though a single wide receiver makes more difference than any single offensive lineman.<\/p>\n
According to PFF, the Packers were third in pass block grade and 14th in receiving grade as a team. And still, the offense was third in DVOA. It’s possible to be effective on offense without an elite weapon.<\/p>\n
You could argue that it had a cost in the playoffs, with the Packers scoring only 10 points on the Philadelphia Eagles, but that feels like an outlier. In the 2023 postseason, Green Bay scored 48 on the\u00a0Dallas Cowboys\u00a0and 21 on the\u00a0San Francisco 49ers\u2014two top defenses at the time.<\/p>\n
It’s hard to say exactly if the Packers truly prioritize the offensive line over the receiver group or if they were simply more apt to build a better offensive line.<\/p>\n
Since 2022, when most of these groups started to get built, the Packers have drafted six receivers and six offensive linemen. Based on Jimmy Johnson’s draft chart, Gutekunst spent 1,029.8 points on receivers and 925,4 points on linemen.<\/p>\n
The difference is that the Packers already had a solid interior offensive lineman in Elgton Jenkins and found a top tackle in the fourth round\u00a0in Zach Tom. If Romeo Doubs was as good at wide receiver as Tom is at right tackle, this discussion wouldn’t even exist in the first place. And Doubs was taken eight picks before.<\/p>\n
“It’s funny, it’s not a philosophical thing we’ve talked about through my time in Green Bay, which goes back quite a while,”\u00a0Gutekunst said\u00a0when asked about not drafting wide receivers on Day 1. “It’s never something like ‘Hey, we don’t want to take wide receivers in the first round’ or certain opportunities we’ve had, we thought that was gonna happen and for whatever reason it didn’t.”<\/p>\n
In general, the Packers do have a better offensive line than a wide receiver core. But that isn’t necessarily a product of investment, but of a higher hit rate.<\/p>\n
There’s a reasonable concern for the Packers offense in 2025. Christian Watson will miss the start of the regular season with a knee injury, and the only veteran addition at the position was Mecole Hardman, who’s much more of a kick returner.<\/p>\n
But to be fair, there wasn’t much they could do. The best trade\u00a0targets were DK Metcalf, and it’s hard to blame Gutekunst for not using a second-round pick and $30 million a year for him,\u00a0and Brandon Aiyuk, who never became truly available. Adams could be a short-term solution, but\u00a0it’s a lot of money for a short-term solution\u00a0in the first place, and it’s hard to believe that Adams would have taken Green Bay over Los Angeles.<\/p>\n
After all, there wasn’t a veteran guy there for the Packers to target. Not this year. Last year, Green Bay could have drafted Ladd McConkey over\u00a0Jordan Morgan, for example, and that might be the lesson to learn.<\/p>\n
With the top of the wide receiver market reaching $40 million, the surplus value of taking a top rookie is insanely high. It’s ok to keep taking receivers early and often, because the dime a dozen concept only goes so far\u2014you can find capable receivers with ease, but it’s truly hard to find great ones.<\/p>\n
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