{"id":18577,"date":"2025-03-24T23:10:20","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T23:10:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=18577"},"modified":"2025-03-24T23:10:20","modified_gmt":"2025-03-24T23:10:20","slug":"blackhawks-star-connor-bedard-could-paint-over-analytical-struggles-with-more-goals-like-sundays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=18577","title":{"rendered":"Blackhawks star Connor Bedard could paint over analytical struggles with more goals like Sunday&#8217;s"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cst.brightspotcdn.com\/dims4\/default\/800acf5\/2147483647\/strip\/true\/crop\/3946x2631+0+0\/resize\/840x560!\/quality\/90\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fchorus-production-cst-web.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F59%2Ffa%2Fc06858144c0982c2947bf1776171%2Fbedard-4.jpg\" alt=\"Connor Bedard\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When Blackhawks fans daydreamed in spring 2023 about Connor Bedard\u2019s future NHL goals, they probably imagined something like his snipe Sunday against the Flyers.<\/p>\n<p>It was basically the perfect Bedard goal. After Ryan Donato tied up a faceoff, Bedard grabbed the puck while cutting into the slot, patiently maneuvered around Travis Konecny, used his quick hands to get his shot off and accurately picked the top corner of the net.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Connor Bedard SNIPE <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kIJ5hx6mBs\">pic.twitter.com\/kIJ5hx6mBs<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BlackhawksFocus\/status\/1903895650825044180?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The 19-year-old star hasn\u2019t produced as many highlight-reel tallies as expected in his first two seasons, but he is now two-for-two in terms of reaching the 20-goal mark. He recorded 22 goals as a rookie and he now touts 20 as a sophomore \u2014 having played in three more games (and counting) than last season \u2014 after scoring in three consecutive home games.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe has had chances, and now they\u2019re starting to go in,\u201d interim coach Anders Sorensen said Sunday. \u201cI thought his last five games have been really good overall. Maybe the numbers don\u2019t always show it, but he\u2019s been really good.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The numbers actually do show some improvement during Bedard\u2019s last five games, although that\u2019s partially because he set such a low bar in his first 11 games after the 4 Nations break, which were some of the worst of his career.<\/p>\n<p>Through Feb. 8, the Hawks\u2019 scoring-chance ratio during five-on-five play with Bedard on the ice was 41.4%, compared to 44.7% without him. Then from Feb. 22 through March 13, those ratios fell even lower to 34.8% with Bedard and 40.0% without him.<\/p>\n<p>But in the five games since March 13, the Hawks are at 50.0% with Bedard \u2014 37 chances for and 37 against \u2014 compared to 41.4% without him. He has nonetheless been outscored 7-1 during that span, but the underlying statistics are decent.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s worth noting matchups play a role in why the Hawks appear to do worse with Bedard than without him; he\u2019s typically facing opposing teams\u2019 best players.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also worth noting Bedard\u2019s age continues to be massively under-appreciated; he\u2019s a full 18 months younger than Hawks rookie forward Frank Nazar, for context.<\/p>\n<p>But Bedard\u2019s analytical struggles are still worrying. Teams typically want their best player \u2014 regardless of age \u2014 driving play, not just fighting to survive.<\/p>\n<p>The Devils, for example, have a 57.0% scoring-chance ratio during Jack Hughes\u2019 five-on-five ice time this season, compared to 50.2% without him. And at this point, Hughes might be Bedard\u2019s closest model \u2014 moreso than superstars like Connor McDavid or Sidney Crosby.<\/p>\n<p>During the final 11 games of the season, it\u2019s unreasonable to expect Bedard to continue breaking even in terms of scoring chances; the Hawks are just too bad for that to be possible. It would be encouraging, however, to see him at least continue exceeding the team average.<\/p>\n<p>And it would be very encouraging to see Bedard begin outperforming his analytics the way players with elite releases and shots sometimes do. He possesses enough micro-skills to potentially win the scoring battle even while swimming underwater in terms of chances and dealing with a steep learning curve in the defensive zone.<\/p>\n<p>Former Hawks great Patrick Kane, for example, has consistently done that, scoring 300 career five-on-five goals (to date) off of shots with an estimated value of 226.6 expected goals. As a result, Kane\u2019s career scoring-chance ratio is a subpar 49.7%, but his career goals ratio \u2014 the thing that really matters \u2014 is a stellar 53.3%.<\/p>\n<p>Bedard so far has scored 26 career five-on-five goals off of shots with an estimated value of 27.9 expected goals, meaning he has slightly underperformed.<\/p>\n<p>But more plays like Sunday\u2019s could change that quickly, because that shot was valued at less than 0.1 expected goals. That is Bedard\u2019s signature type of goal, and he needs to start writing his signature more often.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bedard has now scored in three consecutive home games after sniping the top corner Sunday against the Flyers, but the next step is to begin outperforming his expected goals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18578,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18577","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chicago-blackhawks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blackhawks star Connor Bedard could paint over analytical struggles with more goals like Sunday&#039;s - Breaking News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/breakingnews.azontree.com\/?p=18577\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Blackhawks star Connor Bedard could paint over analytical struggles with more goals like Sunday&#039;s - 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